2019, January in Venezuela

Caracas, January 28, 2019 by Rennea Couttenye

23 de enero march.  Credit: @giomascetti 

On January 23rd there was the largest outpour of people protesting the government
and specifically Venezuela's dictator Maduro.
By everyone's account, this was the largest march ever in this country.

I arrived the next day to a lull and empty streets.

Basically, there is a face-off between the illegal government
and democratic opposition.
Regular citizens are waiting to hear what we are asked to do next —
probably another show-off of our real need for change and democratic elections.

Just now I received news that January 30 and Feb 2nd will be the next protests.

I'll see you on the streets!

In very broad brushstrokes, the players:

1. the illegal government/ Maduro,
2. the National Assembly/Guaidó,
3. the National Armed Forces/Vladimir Padrino,
4. the international opinion and
5. millions of frustrated Venezuelans.

Constitution vs Dictatorship. Credit: skynews

In this face-off
pro-opposition = Guaidó

1. most countries of the world are pro-opposition (US, EU, UK, most South American countries), 
2. UN, OAS, Grupo de Lima
3. millions of Venezuelans are pro-opposition, 

pro-illegal government= Maduro

1. some countries pro-Maduro ( Russia and a few communist countries, China undecided)
2. Part of the National Armed Forces high ranks who are sequestered/corrupted by the Maduro regime. 
3. The lesser amount of Venezuelan Chavistas/Maduristas, maybe 10%?

Maduro and Padrino NOT exercising separation of power.

We are not sure yet: FAN our National Armed Forces

They are the piece the could move this into a civil war or a democratic process. They have the guns and the tight reign with over 500 political prisoners today. Most of the top tier is "Maduro-bought." The previous top tier has been "dissolved", meaning in prison, exiled or dead. They seem to be still with Maduro but...

Something will happen in the next few days. 

They are talking of giving amnesty and a way out to our present dictator and we guess that this calm must mean someone is negotiating something.

I’m here, safe in this big oppressive calm. 

We all know that what’s coming is hard. 

Either way that it moves it will be uphill for the country that has been devastated economically.
While there is a wait, I’m going ahead as planned, writing a script in my moments of calm.

Hope this clarifies the most complicated puzzling Venezuelan panorama.

AND FOLLOWING, EVEN MORE EXPLANATIONS IF YOU WANT...

A clear yet simple explanation of the Venezuelan situation by David Luhnow, Latin America Editor for The Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones:

"Some politicians and folks on the left in US, Europe and Latam wonder if what is happening in Venezuela is a coup against de facto President Nicolas Maduro. Let’s use an analogy that might help.
Imagine a world where US President Donald Trump stacked the Supreme Court and other institutions with political hacks. The midterms come, and Democrats win a resounding 2/3 majority in Congress. Stunned, Trump gets courts to declare Congress null and void, ignores its decisions.
Trump then creates another Congress, filled with his own supporters, to pass laws. When there are street protests against this, he sends out National Guard to crack down. More than 100 are killed by security forces. Thousands arbitrarily arrested.
Top democratic leaders are arrested or forced into exile. Some are tortured.
Trump then heads for re-election. But his administration bars any top Democrat from running. The Democrats boycott the election. Trump holds it anyway and wins! No credible observers are allowed. Even the guy who set up the electronic voting system says there’s fraud.
Trump is sworn in by his fake congress. The real Congress, meanwhile, says he’s an illegitimate president. And, according to law, they swear in the head of Congress as the legitimate president until new elections can be held. That interim president is recognized by many nations.
Now, is that a coup by the real Congress? Or has the coup already taken place by the president? In a nutshell, that’s what happened in Venezuela."